The RBA cash rate is 4.60% after the Reserve Bank raised it on 29 September 2026, its fourth increase this year. After cutting rates during 2025, the RBA returned to tightening in February 2026 as inflation rose, and the Board has said it will increase rates again if needed. This analysis sets out where rates stand, what will drive the next decision and how Australian borrowers can position their home loans.
Where the Cash Rate Stands After Four Rises in 2026
The Reserve Bank has lifted the cash rate four times in 2026, each time by 0.25 percentage points, for a total increase of 1 percentage point this year. The Board held at 4.35% in June and August, when inflation for the June quarter came in softer than expected, then raised again in September as higher global energy and fuel prices fed through to other prices.
The March decision was close: the Board voted 5 to 4 to raise, with four members preferring to hold at 3.85%. By September the Board described inflation as still too high and said further tightening was warranted.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decisions and Board minutes, 2026.
| Decision date | Change | Cash rate after |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | Up 0.25 | 3.85% |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Up 0.25 | 4.10% |
| 5 May 2026 | Up 0.25 | 4.35% |
| 16 Jun 2026 | No change | 4.35% |
| 11 Aug 2026 | No change | 4.35% |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Up 0.25 | 4.60% |
What the RBA Is Watching for the Rest of 2026
Inflation is the deciding factor. Headline inflation was 3.9% over the year to the June quarter and underlying (trimmed mean) inflation was 3.6%, both above the RBA's 2 to 3% target band. In its August Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA forecast that underlying inflation would not return to the middle of that band until early 2028.
In its September statement the Board said inflation is still too high, that further tightening is warranted and that it will increase the cash rate again if needed. The next quarterly inflation figures are due in late October, ahead of the Board's November meeting, and will weigh heavily on whether rates rise again before the end of the year.
The Board is also watching a labour market that has eased broadly as expected, house prices that have fallen in most capital cities and a noticeable decline in new housing loans. Signs that higher rates are slowing the economy faster than expected would make the RBA more cautious about further rises.
How to Position Your Home Loan While Rates Are Rising
With rates rising rather than falling, the priorities for borrowers change.
Variable rate borrowers: lenders usually pass RBA increases through to variable rates within days. On a $600,000 loan over 30 years, each 0.25 percentage point rise adds about $100 a month to repayments, and this year's four rises add about $400 a month in total. Check that your budget can absorb at least one more rise, and make sure you are on a competitive rate rather than an older back book rate.
Thinking about fixing: fixed rates are priced off wholesale markets, which already factor in expected RBA moves, so fixing is not automatically cheaper. What it buys is certainty. A split loan, part fixed and part variable, protects some of your balance while keeping flexibility such as an offset account and extra repayments on the variable part.
If repayments are getting tight: speak to your broker or lender early. Options include refinancing to a sharper rate, restructuring the loan or, where there is genuine hardship, a hardship arrangement with your lender.
Review Your Rate Before the Next Decision
A rate review costs nothing, and lenders compete hardest for new customers. If your rate is above what new borrowers are being offered, refinancing can offset some or all of this year's increases. A Secure Finance mortgage broker can compare your loan against 80+ Australian lenders.
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About the Author
Sakib Manzoor
Senior Finance Wellness Expert
Sakib Manzoor is the founder of Secure Finance and brings extensive experience in Australian mortgage broking and financial wellness. Specialising in helping clients achieve their property finance goals through personalised strategies and expert guidance, Sakib is FBAA accredited and committed to providing clear, actionable advice. All content is written to meet Australian regulatory standards and is regularly updated to reflect current market conditions.