The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the official cash rate at 3.85% per annum at its March 2026 Board meeting, as widely expected by economists and financial markets. The decision follows two cuts of 0.25% each in late 2024 and early 2025 (from the peak of 4.35% to the current level of 3.85%), and reflects the RBA's assessment that while inflation has returned to the target band, a cautious approach to further easing remains appropriate.
The March 2026 Decision and the Current Monetary Policy Context
The RBA cited headline CPI returning to within the 2–3% target band (2.4% in the December 2025 quarter) and a labour market that, while slightly softer than at the peak of the rate cycle, remains resilient by historical standards. The Board noted ongoing uncertainty around global economic conditions — particularly US tariff policy, Chinese economic activity and European growth — as factors warranting a measured approach to further easing.
Financial markets, as reflected in ASX cash rate futures, were pricing a further 0.25% cut by mid-2026 — though analysts noted this could be delayed if inflation data proved stickier than expected. The RBA reiterated its 'data dependent' stance and its commitment to returning inflation sustainably to target.
RBA Meeting Schedule 2026
The RBA Board meets eight times per year since the 2024 governance reforms. Remaining 2026 meetings: May 6, June 10, August 4, September 1, October 7, November 3 and December 1. Each meeting is followed by a monetary policy statement at 2:30pm AEST on the decision day, with detailed minutes released two weeks later.
What the Hold Means for Variable Rate Borrowers
For borrowers on variable rate home loans, the hold means no immediate change to repayments. Variable rates as of March 2026 range from approximately 5.64% (most competitive owner-occupied) to 6.40% (standard variable rates) — down from the peak of approximately 6.4% to 7.4% at the top of the rate cycle. Borrowers who refinanced to competitive variable rates in 2025 are in a relatively strong position.
For borrowers still on 'loyalty rate' variable loans — those who have not reviewed or refinanced their loan — the gap between their current rate and the best available rate may still be 0.5–1.0%. The RBA hold does not address this; only active borrower action (requesting a rate reduction or refinancing) does. This is the moment to review your current variable rate against what is available.
Impact on Fixed Rates and the Property Market
Fixed rates are priced based on wholesale funding markets and futures expectations — not directly on the current cash rate. The expectation of one or two further small RBA cuts in 2026 is already largely priced into current fixed rate offers. Two-year fixed rates from competitive lenders range from approximately 5.5% to 6.0% as of March 2026 — slightly below the best variable rates, reflecting market expectations of further cuts.
The property market continues to be influenced by rate expectations, housing supply constraints and strong immigration-driven demand. CoreLogic's national home value index showed modest growth of approximately 0.3% in February 2026, with Perth and Adelaide continuing to outperform Sydney and Melbourne. First home buyer activity remains elevated, supported by government guarantee schemes.
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About the Author
Sakib Manzoor
Senior Finance Wellness Expert
Sakib Manzoor is the founder of Secure Finance and brings extensive experience in Australian mortgage broking and financial wellness. Specialising in helping clients achieve their property finance goals through personalised strategies and expert guidance, Sakib is FBAA accredited and committed to providing clear, actionable advice. All content is written to meet Australian regulatory standards and is regularly updated to reflect current market conditions.